Friday, April 21, 2006
The HD TV Evolution: Part 1 - Apocalypse 2009?
Posted by Felix Torres in "THOUGHT" @ 11:00 AM
Sometime during spring 2009, a station manager somewhere in the United States will give the order to shut down the last active NTSC TV transmitter, putting a belated end to the analog-broadcast era of TV in the United States. That is, assuming entrenched powers and special interests don’t get the US Congress to delay yet again the transition to an all-digital, High Definition broadcast TV regime. Given the fear within both the broadcast and entertainment industries that a transition to purely HDTV will completely and detrimentally change the rules of their business, it's quite likely that a delay will in fact occur. In my opinion, the rules will invariably change in these industries.
Platform transitions always leave wreckage in their wake as companies and products that thrived under the old regime fail to properly adapt to the new environment. Whether it be GUI-based apps replacing their light-bar and function key-driven precursors, or Smartphones displacing standalone connected-organizers, platform transitions always shake up the status quo. This, of course, opens the door for new players to squeeze in and force the old players to try to adapt to an environment they are unfamiliar with.
Indeed, in the general media there has of been talk of an “HD revolution”, as a way to refer to the massive changes that are happening to the industry. Unfortunately, the term isn’t quite accurate. What we are seeing is not a true revolution (a big change over a short period or a single major change) but rather an evolution (a gradual transition as a result of a series of small discrete steps) as new products and services are rolled out. The success or failure of these products is dictated as the forces of technology development, economics, and changing consumer needs and tastes evolve.
The next five years are not going to be kind to movie theater operators, local TV stations, Hollywood studios, DVD renters or established consumer electronics manufacturers. They will, however, be very kind and satisfying to consumers who have yet to buy their first HD displays. At the same time, early HD adopters with pre-2005 displays are in for a kind of aggravation well-known to early adopters and technology enthusiasts: the annoyance of seeing their very expensive first or second generation devices face early obsolescence and forced retirement upon the arrival of much cheaper and more capable replacement technology. Some will accept this as the unavoidable price of jumping headfirst into a new wave of technology. Others will find themselves fighting doomed rear guard actions against the more refined products that will eventually come to define the market as it matures into a new status quo. Either way, it is going to get very touchy out there.
Having recently had the opportunity to research the current status of the HD display business, I was struck by the familiarity of the emerging scenario. Because in the past few decades, we've gone through technology evolutions, we have hopefully learned a basic lessons that can be recycled and applied to help us all survive the turmoil that lies ahead.
This article is meant to be the first in a series in which I hope to document and explore certain trends in the various HDTV-related markets—starting with displays—to spark discussion and see if the trends I see emerging stand up to detailed scrutiny.
First, though, before we can look at the near future, we really need to look at the present—or more accurately, the recent past. Starting with the basics:
What is an HDTV?
For the purposes of this exercise, an HDTV is a television set designed to receive and fully display at least one of the two ATSC-standard broadcast formats (720p or 1080i), whether received over the air or from a set-top box. It does not require an ATSC tuner, but, it should have some kind of over-the-air tuner to qualify as a TV. HD-grade monitors are a new breed of display that can do everything an HDTV can do but lack tuners. They are new enough that they do not factor into the market statistics I have available.
How many HDTVs are there?
In the US, during the years 2000 through 2004, an estimated 16.4 million Digital TV sets were shipped to dealers, which is about 12% of the total installed base of TVs in use in the country.
More precisely:
In 2004, a total of 31.5 million TV sets were sold in the US.
24 million were analog TVs: direct-view CRTs and CRT-based rear-projection units.
7.5 million were digital TVs, of which:
2.3 million were CRT-based rear-projection units,
1.8 million were direct-view LCD flat panels,
1.2 million were Microdisplay-based rear-projection units,
1 million were direct view CRTs,
900,000 were Plasma Display Panels,
300,000 were digital combo TVs.
Platform transitions always leave wreckage in their wake as companies and products that thrived under the old regime fail to properly adapt to the new environment. Whether it be GUI-based apps replacing their light-bar and function key-driven precursors, or Smartphones displacing standalone connected-organizers, platform transitions always shake up the status quo. This, of course, opens the door for new players to squeeze in and force the old players to try to adapt to an environment they are unfamiliar with.
Indeed, in the general media there has of been talk of an “HD revolution”, as a way to refer to the massive changes that are happening to the industry. Unfortunately, the term isn’t quite accurate. What we are seeing is not a true revolution (a big change over a short period or a single major change) but rather an evolution (a gradual transition as a result of a series of small discrete steps) as new products and services are rolled out. The success or failure of these products is dictated as the forces of technology development, economics, and changing consumer needs and tastes evolve.
The next five years are not going to be kind to movie theater operators, local TV stations, Hollywood studios, DVD renters or established consumer electronics manufacturers. They will, however, be very kind and satisfying to consumers who have yet to buy their first HD displays. At the same time, early HD adopters with pre-2005 displays are in for a kind of aggravation well-known to early adopters and technology enthusiasts: the annoyance of seeing their very expensive first or second generation devices face early obsolescence and forced retirement upon the arrival of much cheaper and more capable replacement technology. Some will accept this as the unavoidable price of jumping headfirst into a new wave of technology. Others will find themselves fighting doomed rear guard actions against the more refined products that will eventually come to define the market as it matures into a new status quo. Either way, it is going to get very touchy out there.
Having recently had the opportunity to research the current status of the HD display business, I was struck by the familiarity of the emerging scenario. Because in the past few decades, we've gone through technology evolutions, we have hopefully learned a basic lessons that can be recycled and applied to help us all survive the turmoil that lies ahead.
This article is meant to be the first in a series in which I hope to document and explore certain trends in the various HDTV-related markets—starting with displays—to spark discussion and see if the trends I see emerging stand up to detailed scrutiny.
First, though, before we can look at the near future, we really need to look at the present—or more accurately, the recent past. Starting with the basics:
What is an HDTV?
For the purposes of this exercise, an HDTV is a television set designed to receive and fully display at least one of the two ATSC-standard broadcast formats (720p or 1080i), whether received over the air or from a set-top box. It does not require an ATSC tuner, but, it should have some kind of over-the-air tuner to qualify as a TV. HD-grade monitors are a new breed of display that can do everything an HDTV can do but lack tuners. They are new enough that they do not factor into the market statistics I have available.
How many HDTVs are there?
In the US, during the years 2000 through 2004, an estimated 16.4 million Digital TV sets were shipped to dealers, which is about 12% of the total installed base of TVs in use in the country.
More precisely:
In 2004, a total of 31.5 million TV sets were sold in the US.
24 million were analog TVs: direct-view CRTs and CRT-based rear-projection units.
7.5 million were digital TVs, of which:
2.3 million were CRT-based rear-projection units,
1.8 million were direct-view LCD flat panels,
1.2 million were Microdisplay-based rear-projection units,
1 million were direct view CRTs,
900,000 were Plasma Display Panels,
300,000 were digital combo TVs.
