Digital Home Thoughts: Cringely on How Broadcast TV Will Die

"Around 2015 is the time when the cost of sending a separate 1080p video signal to every Internet-connected viewer -- or POTENTIAL VIEWER -- will be the same as using a broadcast model and sending that signal through the air. After 2015 there will be no scaling limits, no processing limits, no decoding limits. And since individual video streams mean individual commercials with a requisite CPM (cost per thousand) bump of up to 10X, commercial television as we know it will die, replaced by consumers choosing from a menu or recommendation engine what they want to see when they want to see it. Just follow the money."

I always enjoy reading Robert X. Cringely's writing; not because he's always right, but because he has an interesting perspective and thought-provoking ideas. Some of what he's alluded to is already here: for a couple of years now I've been slowly migrating away from my phone company, and today pay my cable company (Shaw Cable) for TV, Internet, two phone lines, and a fax line. It was a liberating feeling getting away from the phone company (Telus). My cable Internet service is rated for 10 mbps, but when testing against a Shaw server I'll usually see speeds in excess of 20mbps (and Speedtest.net reports speeds in the 15 mbps range). Upload speeds are limitd to 1mbps. DSL offerings in my area, on the other hand, top out at 7mbps with most being in the 5mbps range - and upload speeds limited to 640 kbps. In other words, cable is in the lead, but there's plenty of room for competition: in some ways I'm paying for the same service three times over (Internet, TV, phone) because it all runs over the same copper connection. I wouldn't mind so much if I felt like my cable company was aggressively improving their service - what I really want it faster uploading speeds. 1 mbps is fine for email, but when I'm uploading 500 MB worth of photos it just does't cut it. I've heard Verizon FiOS speeds are 3 mbps upstream - man, I wish!